A Year of Challenges and Breakdowns ... But Hope for a Better Future is in Sight (2019)

http://www.annd.org/data/file/files/Progress%20Report%202019%20EG%20Online.pdf

Beirut, January 2020

The year 2019 saw major events unfolding at the international and regional levels, perhaps the most important of which was the eruption of protest movements across the world, from Latin America to Asia, Africa, and the Arab region, raising common demands under the same title: Social Justice. At a minimum, they expressed the failure of prevailing policies since the turn of the century, those of brutal neoliberalism, austerity, and the dominance of the current financial system, which allows an unfettered flow of capital, the existence of tax paradises, and the spread of tax evasion.

The above policies led to the exacerbation of the social and economic crisis, increased the concentration of wealth in the hand of the %1, and led to the deterioration of the conditions of more than %60 of the population. An Oxfam report released at the end of 2019 goes further and says that %82 of the world's wealth is held by %1 of the billionaires and that the world's 2,153 richest billionaires possess more wealth than more than %60 of the people globally. According to Oxfam's calculations, "globally, %42 of women of working age, compared with %6 of men, are outside the paid labour force because of unpaid care responsibilities."

Along this description of the economic and social consequences of neoliberal globalization, it must be noted that it is accompanied by developments in ideology and political practices at the international level, where a generalized and systematic violation of the human rights system and international law is taking place. Strong parties, internationally or regionally, adopt a policy of brute force in international diplomatic, economic, and social relations to impose their conditions on other parties. It can be through trade wars armed 6 with political or administrative measures or through direct military intervention in the affairs of other countries and provoking conflicts. In the Arab region, whose people are their biggest victims, such policies are being shamelessly flaunted by highly influential international and regional powers.

A wide inequality gap exists both between and within Arab countries. An ESCWA report issued in early 2019 indicated that the Arab region is stuck in the inequality trap; the differences are not limited to income, but affect social, political, and economic aspects, including human capital. For example, one of the report's shocking results is that it is the most unequal region, with the richest %10 of the population controlling %62 of the wealth. This is due to the unequal opportunities between citizens in accessing public services, especially decent work opportunities, as a result of institutional deficit and structural decay.

Thus, it was no surprise that 2019 witnessed the eruption of the Arab Spring's second wave from Algeria, where the people overthrew President Abdelaziz Bouteflika and began on a steady path towards desired democratic transformation, albeit which remains winding, complicated, and ambiguous, due to the continuing primary role of the armed forces in the process. In Sudan, the peaceful revolution succeeded in toppling President Omar Hassan al-Bashir and establishing a transitional phase led by a joint council between the leadership of the armed forces and representatives of the revolution. Despite these two accomplishments, both countries continue to face challenges on the road to building democracy and a modern state as demanded by the people, brought about in part by the role played by the armed forces, which contrasts – if not contradicts - the aspirations of civil forces in Sudan as well as in Algeria.

Lebanon and Iraq, on the contrary, are in a very similar and closely related situation. The geopolitical crisis and conflicts between the regional axes and their international extensions have had serious repercussions on the political, economic, and social conditions in both countries. The nature of both political systems is one of a clientelist political-sectarian division and where decision-making mechanisms fall outside of constitutional institutions, weakening their immunity and multiplying their fragility and inability to overcome crises. Both systems do not allow citizens' active participation and tend to hinder the mechanisms of disclosure and accountability. In addition to the crisis faced by both economic models, where production in basic sectors decreased as a result of conflicts, tension, and external interference in Iraq, the economic choices and financial and monetary policies of Lebanon, and the spread of structural corruption, clientelism, patronage in employment and supplies, and monopolizing commodity markets in both countries. The situation is compounded by weak redistribution tools, such as fair tax policies, comprehensive social protection systems, and fair wage policies. All of these factors have led to increased social inequality at various levels and to a periodic eruption of severe political and institutional crises.

The Syrian crisis brought serious repercussions inside Iraq and Lebanon, threatening stability and civil peace due to the fragile nature of both regimes and political divisions. In Lebanon, the Syrian crisis closed land borders leading to Jordan, the mandatory passage for Lebanese goods towards Gulf markets, in addition to increasing smuggling operations to and from Syria, not to mention the influx of refugees, whose numbers exceed one fifth of the Lebanese population. Furthermore, political factors related to the Syrian situation led to worsening relations between Lebanon and GCC countries, who had been the biggest contributors to supporting the economy through direct investments, bank deposits, real estate investments, aid, and tourism in addition to remittances by Lebanese expats in those countries.

Structural corruption and the nature of the banking system in Lebanon aggravated the situation. The most recent crisis in Autumn 2019 caused the deterioration of the exchange rate from 1,500 Lebanese Pound to the Dollar in July 2019 to 2,500 before a slight recovery, but remaining unstable until the writing of this report. The resulting decrease in the purchasing power of Lebanese citizens reached between %35 and %40. Unemployment, officially estimated at %16 in total, %23 for youth, and %55 informally employed in 2019/2018, is expected to have reached %25 due to stagnation and the total or partial closure of establishments. The poor population is also expected to have increased from around one third to around one half of the population by the beginning of 2020.

In Iraq, sectarian and political divisions contributed to rampant corruption and depletion of the economy and resources; one of the biggest oil-rich countries in the world is now one of the poorest.

As for the countries of the Arab Spring's first wave (2011), the situation is not perfect. Despite the peaceful political transition in Tunisia, the political and economic situation is still complicated, placing the country under the pressure of European neighborhood policies, which demand the conclusion of bilateral trade negotiations, calling for more liberalization, on the one hand, and IFIs demanding more austerity that reflects on the social and service conditions of citizens, on the other. The direction of the political process is also unstable, as the sequential results of the parliamentary, municipal, and presidential elections have shown, adding to the ambiguity surrounding the political and socio-economic tracks. In Egypt, civil society is passing through some of the most difficult times, besieged by restrictions and judicial and security prosecution, under a military regime. Armed conflicts continue in Yemen and Libya, with the humanitarian situation worsening as a result of external interference and flagrant violations of international humanitarian law, exposing civilians to increased danger.

Right before finishing writing this introduction, the Deal of the Century appeared in the most horrific of forms. It was announced by the "US sponsor of Middle East peace negotiations" and its partner, the "enemy's" prime minister, unilaterally and in a manner never before witnessed throughout history, calling on the Palestinians and neighboring countries to join the Deal in exchange for a sum of money amounting to fifty billion US dollars. Regardless of the form, the Deal, which we believe was stillborn as it carried the reasons for its failure, will have serious repercussions on the region's security and stability. It will inevitably increase tensions in the occupied territories and lead to political and economic pressures on countries that refuse to engage in it. The Deal cannot be accepted, as it deprives the Palestinian people of their most basic human rights, foremost of which is the right to self-determination, the establishment of an independent state, and the right to development and to live in peace, security, and prosperity. It also deprives the Palestinians of the diaspora of the right of return, although stipulated by all international charters and laws and repeated by UN resolutions, the world's only legitimate international institution.

In short, the region is undergoing one of its direst moments, with occupations, armed conflicts, economic, financial and political crises, external interventions, and, above all, its exposure to pressure from IFIs and their nonstop interference under the pretext of getting out of the financial and monetary crisis or providing social safety nets to vulnerable groups, demanding structural reforms in public policies and ignoring human rights. There is ample evidence in the reports of many international, regional, and national human rights organizations of flagrant human rights violations caused by the application of IFI policies, including reports by the special rapporteurs for human rights. This is the region's unfortunate situation. Nevertheless, reports submitted by its governments to international organizations paint a different picture, whether in the UPR process before the Human Rights Council in Geneva or the Voluntary National Reviews (VNRs) on sustainable development policies during the HLPF at the UN headquarters in New York. These governments bow to the IFIs and are subject to their conditions, so they place no value on human rights, especially the right to decent work, social protection, fair wages, or fair tax systems and call for the privatization of public sector institutions without any feasibility studies or the ability to monitor the private sector's performance, especially if it is affiliated to partners in power. There can be no doubt that relations with the international community are necessary and incontrovertible. However, they must consider national and regional priorities and interest first, which should be identified by the region's own peoples, without the tutelage of a ruler, a high commissioner, or a donor. We are certain that our rulers do not choose austerity measures that impact their interests, but those that come at the expense of citizens. And this formula needs to change.

In 2019, the region fell between a stifling crisis and authoritarian and corrupt governments, on one hand, and the conditions imposed by IFIs, on the other, in addition to the shift in international politics away from human rights standards and respect of international law, towards the militarization of globalization and the hegemony of the security approach at the expense of all rights, including the right to development. Nevertheless, the explosion of popular anger evokes a lot of hope that the peoples' voices will be heard in the coming years and they will be gradually realized towards building modern civil states and constitutional democracies, providing social justice, respect for human rights and citizenship, adherence to international law and the maintenance of international peace, and dispensing of policies of imperial intervention, which should be a reminder of a long gone past.

Perhaps the biggest danger facing people and civil society in Arab countries is the almost complete departure from the principle of the supremacy of law and respect for the constitution in most countries. It does not make these states failed or rogue from the perspective of international equilibrium, but rather transforms them from countries governed by constitutions, the law, and governments that have a minimum level of legitimacy and legitimacy, to countries living outside their constitution and private laws in relation to their institutions, actors in their political system, or their people. This entails dangerous consequences, not least of which is the aggravation of benign conflicts and contradictions that contribute to the development and advancement of society into the path of chaos and mutual and self-destruction, due to the absence of standards, rules, and institutions qualified to manage conflicts and contradictions in society.

For the Arab NGO Network for Development (ANND), this was a year rich in activities and achievements. It launched a regional report on the right to food, the result of efforts by tens of Arab and international experts and two years of work and perseverance. It also published reports on the situation of civil society and available civic space, in addition to contributing to organizing dialogues with the European Union (EU) neighborhood on all aspects related to its political, economic, security, and trade policies in the region. ANND also continued its work on international financial and development institutions, especially the dialogue on their regional policies and role in providing support without adhering to austerity measures detrimental to human rights. ANND also followed up on governmental reports and supported the drafting of civil society reports delivered periodically or voluntarily to the UN regarding human rights and sustainable development policies, aiming to propose policy alternatives and engage in dialogue with those in charge of political decisions in Arab countries.

This publication reviews the many achievements and challenges of 2019, through the efforts of the unknown soldiers of the executive office, coordination committee, member organizations as well as experts, friends and partners as ANND prepares its 2020-2023 strategy. All these achievements would not have been possible without their dedication and sincere work and they deserve all the respect, appreciation and love.

Ziad Abdel Samad