Lebanon in crisis: is there an exit? Caabu online panel discussion
Both Corruption and negligence disabled the main agencies
from doing their job properly; even the reaction and the response of the state
agencies indicated the extent to which the public institutions are paralyzed
and dysfunctional, there was no coordination, weak responsiveness and lack of a
clear vision. Thanks to the local and international civil society and
global agencies and the coordination led by the UN agencies, people managed to
get the minimum required needs and recovery.
It is worth mentioning, that the bar association with other
syndicates (contractors, engineers, auditors, etc.) managed also to play a
coordination role, mainly in assessing the damages and removing the robbers in
a professional way and rehabilitate few houses highlighting the importance of
the role of civil society institutions and groups.
Despite this sad reality, the ruling elite keeps on doing
business as usual, which is very clear in the negotiations held to form the
governments;
First with the appointed PM Moustafa Adib, who failed to
form an independent government as per the requirements of the initial French
initiative, and the demand of the lebanese people, (because the national unity
government and this for male of powers sharing have low popularity) and this
is, by the way, the important result of the uprising where people don’t appreciate
any more power sharing namely by appointing Saad Hariri who is one of the main
responsible of the failure; to remind us, Mr. Hariri was the PM in October 17,
his government imposed the taxation law and is responsible of the looming
economic collapse that prompted the uprising, Mr. Hariri decided to resign
after the rejection of the reform he proposed on October 21st
by the protestors involved in the uprising.
The pressure that the political elite is doing now, is to
form “the government of national unity” based on the power sharing equation. They
insist to be all represented. The way they conduct negotiations around the
distribution of the portfolios among them, shows their way of thinking and the
intention to keep on protecting their proper interests and of the interests of
their crones and clients.
The government of national unity (which is basically the
consociational government) is the demand of the international community
assuming that this will help in adopting the reform agenda and implement it. The
reason is that they are in the parliament and they can vote for the suggested
reforms or reject them;
Although this political elite is the main responsible for
the failure because of their corruption they even lost legitimacy in October
17, they are not representing the political will and aspirations of the
Lebanese people anymore but they still have the legal status.
The Lebanese people gained legitimacy since October 17,
when hundreds of thousands went to the streets in the different regions of Lebanon
and with different political and social backgrounds, but now they don’t have
the legality, this is the main reason behind the political stagnation that we
are witnessing nowadays.
They are literally occupying the state, practicing grave
violations of the constitutional law and many other laws. (for example Amal and
Hezbollah insist to keep the ministry of finance under their control, the same
two parties insist to nominate all the Shia ministers in the government, which
is anti-constitutional),
October 17 was a turning point in Lebanon, it unified
Lebanon and the Lebanese, some say that it was the factual end of the Lebanese
war. This explains the aggressive reaction of the parties in power, namely “the
alliance between the mafia and the militias”. They severely suppressed popular
uprising using different tools including direct assault, pressure on the space
for freedoms basically freedom of assembly and freedom of expression. They mobilized
intruders to sabotage the manifestations.
The key demands of the October 17 uprising went far beyond
the resignation of the government, it was asking for a deep political and
systemic changes towards the civil state (in other words to end
sectarianism and the power sharing formula among the community representatives
and create a secular system starting from adopting a new electoral law and the
civic code besides other reforms).
The priority of the uprising was given to nominate an
independent government of transition with some legislative authorities to realize
the above mentioned agenda. Unfortunately, the fast deterioration of the
social and economic conditions, the scale of the pandemic spread in addition to
the severe suppression in different forms slowed down the uprising. Not to
forget the geopolitical and regional contexts where Lebanon is in the middle
between an occupation from one side and a civil war from the other
side. Moreover, the region witnesses a complicated geopolitical struggle
among global and regional actors with a high influence inside lebanon.
Nowadays, the negotiations to form a new government are
ongoing! It is obvious that the process led by the traditional elite goes
towards the creation of “a government of national unity” while the popular
movement opposes and rejects any form of power sharing and is asking to go back
to the initial demands of the revolution which is to form “an independent
government of transition with some legislative authorities” to fulfil at least
two main tasks:
·
The
First task is to adopt a new electoral law and conduct free and democratic
elections organized by an independent commission with an international
observation. The law should be based on the constitution, i.e. adopt a secular
electoral law to elect a parliament free from sectarian representation and to
create a second chamber, the senate, to represent the different legally recognized
sects in lebanon. The senate aims at protecting the rights and interests of the
different sects.
·
The
Second task will be to adopt the administrative decentralization law securing
the equal and just development and prosperity among the regions, something very
needed in a highly centralized system.
In addition, the uprising demands the adoption of an
urgent reform agenda and implement a social protection system to assist and
protect people from the mounting needs and threats due to the humanitarian,
economic, social, monetary crisis. The aim will be to address the high
percentage of poverty which is more than 60%, unemployment which exceeds 30%,
inflation rate that became more than 115%, besides the health conditions and
obstacles to education in times of the pandemic as well as the food security
threatened by the inability to import goods with the lack of foreign
currency
It is worth noting that these reforms don’t require any constitutional
amendment; on the contrary, they are included in the constitution of 1990 but
were never implemented, it was the same elite who prevented their
implementation.
A number of political groups, some of them existed before
the uprising, others are newly established after October 17, are trying to create
coalitions and fronts. There is a coordination with the professional syndicates,
such as the bar association, the engineers, medical doctors, pharmacists, and
the main academic non-profit establishments and universities, along with trade
unions and labor unions, and others. The aim is to create a new balance of
power between the people's movement and the ruling elites to achieve the two
above mentioned big but important objectives.
The intention is to create a strong coalition with fairly good
representation and take the lead to exert more pressure and defy the current
system. The recovery of the state and probably the stolen assets, is primordial
as well as the liberation of the public institutions from all forms of
clientelism and nepotism.
These groups are planning to elaborate policy alternatives basically
the economic and social dimensions. The challenge is to move towards a
productive and redistributive economic system. They are also conducting open
national dialogue around the needed political reform to phase out from the
crisis.
It is worth noting that rethinking the whole economic and
social approaches. The social dimensions won't be perceived as a by-product of
the economic growth and social policies. It is important to widen the
perspective from implementing safety nets programs to a more comprehensive
social protection system with universal coverage including different social
groups, sectors and regions.
The international community and the solidarity movements
and groups have a role to play mainly by supporting this emerging stream. It
goes without saying that the collapse of Lebanon will create serious threats to
the region and the whole Mediterranean. Lebanon is hosting more than one million
Syrian refugees, and around 500 thousand officially registered Palestinian
refugees (maybe only 180 thousand remain living in different parts of lebanon
but the others don’t lose their rights as refugees registered in Lebanon even
if they live abroad)
Finally, it is important to underline that any external
pressure and sanctions can enormously help, but they will never have the
expected results unless they rely on a strong local Mouvement able to break the
status-quo and lead the nation towards real changes and this is why the plan is
to create such a coalition or a movement in the coming future.
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